Sunday, January 18, 2009

In Retrospect....

Thank god the Yankees didn't trade for Johan Santana last winter.

No that is not a typo. My point is that Johan Santana's contract is going to come back to bite the Mets in the end. Largely ignored in the debates raging over Santana was the fact that he was going to endup costing somebody a ton of money. Here`s his RCA's for the past three years:

2006- 3.10 (79 runs in 229 innings)

2007- 3.19 (77 runs in 217 innings)

2008- 4.02 (101 runs in 226 innings)

Just so you know, I checked the 2008 stats three times and they are correct. If you`re suddenly doubting the validity of this stat then I`d like to note that I did predict Barry Zito's sudden collapse using this stat.

I think by now you know what the replacement level guy does so here's what Santana is worth compared to him:

2006- 61 runs, 6.1 wins, 33.55 million dollars

2007- 55 runs, 5.5 wins, 30.25 million dollars

2008- 37 runs, 3.7 wins, 20.35 million dollars

This guy has been steadily declining since 2006. In fact, a quick glance at the stats shows that even 2006 was a drop-off from the previous year. In fact, every year has been inferior to his first full year in 2004. So why? He`s still pretty young.

Maybe it has something to do with the ridiculous amount of innings he`s thrown each year. Anyway, since 2004 his K/BB has been dropping fairly steadily, his LD% has risen, his K/9 has plummeted, and his BB/9 keeps climbing. For whatever reason he hit an early decline and its only going to get worse. He wasn't worth much more than the 17 million he earned last year and if he doesn't reverse this trend he`s going to end up weighing down the Mets payroll in coming years. Its only a matter of time before he gets hurt and misses a good chunk of a season as well.

No matter how Hughes, Jackson, and Kennedy do, unless Johan can bounceback, the Yanks were smart in their restraint. With the Sabathia signing, they got a better pitcher anyway and are in a better position for the future.


Rob Abruzzese said...

This is spin at its best. All you had to do was watch Santana's final start to know that he's still an elite pitcher. You cannot compare him to Barry Zito because Zito wasn't nearly as good as Santana even when he won the Cy Young.

Also if your case is that he's pitched too many innings then we should really start to worry about Sabathia. Who makes more money.

I'm happy with the way things worked out. I'd rather have Sabathia and Hughes and Santana. But that doesn't mean I have to shove my head up my butt.

Mike NYY said...

Sabathia's crossed the 220 inning barrier twice, the past two years. Sabathia has done it or come close to doing it every year since 2004. I`m not a doctor but the fact is that his stats have declined every year since 2004 when he broke out.

If Santana had been a free agent signing I would have liked the signing but he`s not exactly a bargain. He signed a contract that he`s worth and that's not worth giving up Hughes and co. for. Theirs a good chance he will underperform that contract to.

Santana is still a very good pitcher. Yes, better than Zito but its the same problem. Zito and Santana both have been steadily declining since 2004. You could argue that with Zito is went further back.

I am worried about Sabathia's arm but it was a risk the Yanks had to take to get an ace pitcher. Had Santana been a free agent last year I would have made that offer to him to.