Saturday, January 17, 2009

What is Ben Sheets Worth?

Interest in this guy has been near non-existent and its understandable with his injury problems. However, when he`s pitching he's an ace. I greatly preferred him over A.J. Burnett and now the the price tag on Sheets has sunk so low its worth considering him over Pettitte. Like Pettitte, he might take a one year deal so he can prove himself again and cash in next year with a weaker free agent class.

Here`s a look at his RCA stats:

2006- 2.83 RCA (34 runs in 109 innings)

2007- 4.24 RCA (67 runs in 142 innings)

2008- 3.89 RCA (84 runs in 194 innings)

Compared to the replacement level guy.....

2006- 5.50 RCA (67 runs in 109 innings)

2007- 5.50 RCA (87 runs in 142 innings)

2008- 5.50 RCA (119 runs in 194 innings)

So we have one year of ridiculously awesome performance for half a season, a mediocore year in which he missed a good chunk of the season and a very good year in which he ate up a lot of innings.

His worth compared to a replacement guy:

2006- 33 runs, 3.3 wins, 18.15 million dollars

2007- 20 runs, 2 wins, 11 million dollars

2008- 35 runs, 3.5 wins, 19.25 million dollars

Man, they made a mistake with Burnett.

This is a very interesting guy. He`s not the type of player the Yankees need (a back-end innings eater) but if Pettitte is ridiculous in his demands then they would be well served picking up Ben Sheets on a one year deal with an option for a second. Some think he may have to settle for under 10 million and for him that's an incredible bargain.

Over the past three years his total worth was very close to Pettitte's (About 47 million for Pettitte and 48 million for Sheets). Cost ignored I`d pick Pettitte just for nostalgia and the stabilizing force he provides. However, if Sheets costs less I`d pick him up. If they fail to get either of them I`m going to be very dissapointed.

If they do get Sheets, its interesting that they have five potential aces in their rotation. Sabathia is Sabathia, Burnett is a borderline ace when he`s healthy, Joba showed that kind of potential last year, Wang is also a borderline ace, and Sheets is as good as any of them when he`s on.


Nate said...

"Meanwhile, people around baseball believe free agent Ben Sheets is open to accepting a one-year deal, for roughly $6 million with major incentives – such as Brad Penny and John Smoltz accepted from the Red Sox."

If its true that Sheets would sign a deal like that we should sign him right now. However, I think Sheets' shoulder injury may be worse than we know about, because otherwise I think he would be generating more interest.

Swedski said...

I agree. Sheets could be a great signing for little money. Give him 2 years like 7-8 mill per with incentives. Or Low first year with a guarantee for a higher second Reward could be high BUT he could crash as well.

The difference with this and Pavano is that you go in with your eyes open and take a chance

Mike NYY said...

If Sheets is looking at 6 million for one year, then Pettitte made a huge mistake in turning down 10 million.

Sheets is different from Pavano in that he`s a one year patch for a solid chunk of money but not a huge amount. Pavano was a big long term commitement.

One year, 6 million with incentives up to 12. Plus an option for 2010 for 16-18 million?

Just speculating here.