Sunday, January 4, 2009

What Is Oliver Perez Worth?

After yesterday's post on Oliver Perez one of the commenters suggested I make one of these things for Perez. So, here it is.

Like I said yesterday, Perez is an okay pitcher. Probably a little below average but he`s still young and has room to improve. The two problems he has are walks and frustrating inconsistency. Neither of which are good for a team which will be on the brink of playoff contention like the Yanks who need to be sure they`re getting a solid 6 innings every time out from their 5th starter. That's my impression at least. Does he strike out enough to make it worth it? In a word, no. Here`s his RCA numbers for the last three years:

2006-5.61 (71 runs in 114 innings)

2007- 3.58 (72 runs in 181 innings)

2008- 5.08 (105 runs in 186 innings)

In comparison a replacement level pitcher:

2006- 5.50 (67 runs in 114 innings)

2007- 5.50 (111 runs in 181 innings)

2008- 5.50 (114 runs in 186 innings)

Like I said, really inconsistent. In 2006 and 2008 he was awful and in 2007 he was an ace. He`s only 27 and could figure things out but not with the Yankees. The transition to the AL East would be awful for him. Besides this it locks up their 5 spots in the rotation long term which leaves Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves in a permanent state of filling in for injury unless you move Joba to the bullpen which weakens the team long-term. Perez is a risky signing and could turn out being a stroke of genius for a team with a good pitching coach but not with the Yankees.

For any other team here is his worth compared to a replacment level pitcher:

2006- 4 runs, .4 wins, 2.2 million dollars

2007- 39 runs, 3.9 wins, 21.45 million dollars

2008- 9 runs, .9 wins, 4.95 million dollars

Perez will probably get a three year deal from some NL team, who that is I`m not sure. Convenienty, we can add up what he deserved the past 3 years to get a ballpark figure of what he`s worth, which is 28.6 million dollars. That's a little under 10 million dollars a year, about what he should get. He`ll be 27 on Opening Day and he could be beginning his peak years so theirs a good chance he`ll outperform that. Again though, the Yankees aren't looking for a risky long-term project just a one year quick fix to give Hughes some extra time.