Saturday, February 14, 2009

#5 Starter

This is were things get really messy. I really have no idea what Boston is going to do so I`m going to turn this into a post on the 5th starter and the next few guys who will come up when somebody gets hurt.

Yankees- Joba Chamberlain- In his brief time in the majors, Joba has been an incredibly dominating force. In his first real year in the majors he put up an RCA of 2.65 in 102 innings. Yep, that's pretty insane. That is a small sample size though and now that the league has seen him that`ll go up. Personally, I think he`s going to go through some growing pains this year. Still, he`s going to be a big part of the Yankees future, either as the biggest bust in their history or their next ace. Beyond Joba they have some very solid depth. I still have faith in Hughes and Coke and Aceves are both promising. Theirs a few veterans they have as well, like the newly signed Brett Tomko. I haven't totally given up on Ian Kennedy yet either.

Rays- David Price- Honestly, the best comparison I can think of for Price is Joba. Except Joba is a year ahead of Price. In his first year in the pros, Price flew through the minors. He ended up finishing the year in the Ray's ML bullpen. Everybody loves this guy, scouts and statheads alike think he has the potential to be an ace (note the lack of starter/reliever debate over this guy). The question is whether his first year in the majors is more like Hughes or Joba. My gut feeling is that he`ll have a solid year but not much more than that.

Red Sox- Brad Penny- Penny was one of a bunch of buy-low guys that Boston signed this year. He`s coming off of the worst year of his career. He got killed with a 5.35 RCA in 89 innings. So, obviously Epstein is hoping for something more like the previous two years. That's possible but some of the bragging I`ve heard from people north of the New York border goes a bit to far. Anybody hoping for him to be an ace is going to be sorely dissapointed. In 2007 he threw 190 innings and had an RCA of 4.36 and the year before he was a tick better with an RCA of 4.35 in 186 innings. I know Boston has a great medical staff and could get him back to what he used to be. They also have excellent depth though. Around June they`ll get John Smoltz who is still a front of the rotation guy. Clay Buchholz is coming off a bad year but, like Hughes don't give up on him yet.

Conclusion- Yankees- Red Sox- Rays- This was a tough one for me but Joba has more upside than Penny and is a safer bet than Price. Besides that, having Aceves, Hughes, and Kennedy all waiting for the call to the majors encourages me. I think John Smoltz is going to have a very good year as well which is why Boston is ahead of the Rays. Price is very good but just doesn't have a proven track record. This concludes the rotation part of this series which means I will no longer bombard you with RCA calculations. I still have to do catcher, the bullpen, the three outfield spots, and DH. Hopefully, I`ll get another one or two done by the end of the week.


Rob Abruzzese said...

Kind of sounds like you're giving up on Kennedy. In reality though, the Yankees need to trade one of their young pitchers. Especially if Coke turns out to be a real candidate.

Mike NYY said...

To be honest, I was never a huge Kennedy fan. I wanted them to trade him last offseason after his hot September.

I still think he can be a solid ML pitcher. However, four of the five rotation spots are locked up long-term. Only one of Hughes, Coke, Aveves, Kennedy, etc. will be able to break into the rotation into the rotation next year.

I think Hughes makes the rotation, Kennedy gets traded, Coke end up in the bullpen, and Aceves takes on a Ramiro Mendoza type role.

Sweet Dick Willie said...

Price is very good but just doesn't have a proven track record.

Neither did Dwight Gooden in 1884, but you know what he did have? Talent. Honest to goodness Major League talent.

Guess what Price has? If you said talent, then you're a winner! (If you said no experience, while true, then you're a loser!)

Nate said...

So we should just assume that any young pitcher with talent is going to be 1984 Dwight Gooden? I think Price will be an ace one day, but it would be incredibly difficult to have a rookie year in the AL east free of any speed bumps.