Showing posts with label CC Sabathia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CC Sabathia. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 27, 2009


Believe it or not, we don't have any more of the position spots set in stone. I don't see Swisher or Nady getting traded but I don't want to do a whole post and then have to start all over again so I`m going to play it safe. In addition, Boston doesn't know who their catcher is yet and I`m still not quite sure what to do with centerfield. So, its on to the rotation for now. First up is the team's aces.

Yankees- C. C. Sabathia- Its nice to not have to fit Wang into this spot anymore. He`s a good pitcher and passable ace but not on the same level as Sabathia, Santana, Halladay, Peavy, and a few others which you need in the AL East. Anyway, in Sabathia we have either the best or second best pitcher in baseball (Roy Halladay is the other guy). I already did a super long post on Sabathia so I`ll condense it here. He`s been worth 4, 5, and 7 wins over the past three years which his RCA going down every year and his IP going up every year. The only concern with him is injury and I`ll give him the benefit of the doubt on that for now.

Red Sox- Josh Beckett- I honestly didn't know who to put as Boston's ace right away. I think Boston is planning on having Beckett as their Opening Day starter though so that's what I`m going with for now. Beckett actually had a pretty poor 2008 with a 4.02 RCA in 169 innings. That's very good but not ace like. I`m not sure why that's so far off from his FIP but it almost exactly matches his ERA. This is a pretty sharp contrast to his 2007 when he had a 2.88 RCA in 200 innings. Then, if you go back another year the see-sawing continues. In his first year in Boston, he had an RCA of 4.26 with 207 innings pitched. Bizarre. The best I can make of this is that Beckett is a good pitcher who had one incredible year that probably won't be replicated.

Tampa Bay- James Shields- After so many years of suffering through Michael Kay telling us that if the Rays could just get some solid pitching behind Kazmir they`d be a contender he was agonizingly proven right. Not only did they get some solid guys behind Kazmir, they found somebody better than him. Shields didn't really become effective until 2006 when he turned 26 (take that Hughes haters) but now he`s one of the better pitchers in baseball. He had a 3.71 RCA last year in 211 innings and the year before he had an RCA of 3.41 in 213 innings. He`s still fairly young and his peak years so theirs no reason to expect him to suddenly stop. The sudden increase in his innings may end up being a problem but if he hasn't gotten hurt yet then I think you need to give him a pass there.

Conclusion- Yankees- Rays- Red Sox- I think the Yanks come out ahead here pretty easily. Sabathia is really in that top top tier of pitchers which Beckett and Shields aren't at. How Beckett does this year should be interesting. If he has another 2006 or 2008 year then it might be time to start calling 2007 an outlier. However, if he has another ace type year then we also need to adjust our opinions of him. Shields also has the potential for a big year though and has already established himself as consistently being a front of the rotation guy. Keep in mind that I`m doing this in the order that the teams seem to be setting up their rotations. Not who is best, otherwise Lester may have been ahead of Beckett. It also means Joba is the #5 guy to limit his innings.

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Merry Christmas From TCK

Send your own ElfYourself eCards

Cashman with all of his homies

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

CC's Deal Has an Opt-out Clause

The contract that CC Sabathia is going to sign with the Yankees is for seven years, as you all know. However, CC has the option of opting out of his contract after three years. This obviously favors CC, but first of all, I think it is unlikely that he opts out, because I don't see him getting $23 million over the next four years. Secondly, in the last four years of this deal, CC will likely be beginning to decline, though he will still obviously be a very good pitcher, so losing four years of him may not sound as bad as it seems.

C.C. Will Sign With Yankees

Alright here is my second post from my iPhone.

According to numerous sources CC will sign with the Yankees. The deal is said to be 7 years and 160 million. I will post more info as it comes.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Sabathia To Angels

Is not happening.

Jon Heyman talked to Angels owner, Arte Moreno, about Sabathia. It doesn't sound like they`re in it at all. He basically says Texiera is thier main target.

Cash to meet with Sabathia


Very interesting, Cashman missed a media session to get to another meeting with C. C. Sabathia says Pete Abraham. He also says that Sabathia is essentially Plan B for the Angels and Giants which is kind of old news but its nice to hear it reinforced.

Seeing as their last meetin consisted mainly of them discussing what life in New York is like this may be the meeeting where we find out whether he`ll be a Yankee or not.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Sabathia meets with Yanks Again

Sabathia met with the Yanks again today. Judging by what I`ve heard lately, I`m feeling optimistic about our chances with him. I think he may sign a deal by the end of the meetings, just a hunch though.


It seems like the Brewers are doing everything they can to try to entice Sabathia to stay with them. They may be willing to add a sixth year and an opt out clause after 3 years. They also may be willing to go up to 120 million dollars. If this is true then I think Sabathia would seriously consider going to the Brewers. The opt out clause and NL may be worth 20 million for him.

EDIT: Doug Melvin, the Brewers GM, dismisses the reports about the raised offer. However, they`re still in it.

Sabathia wants to be a Dodger?

Supposedly, Sabathia told Ned Colletti that he wants to be a Dodger. I`m a little suspicious of this story. This would seem to be a really weird thing to say, it puts him and his agent in a really bad position to negotiate. I`m sure he would love to go the Dodgers who are both on the west coast and NL but I`m doubting this.

That said, the Dodgers would be dangerous if they got involved in this. With them getting frustrated with Manny, they have to start looking at other options.

Friday, December 5, 2008

How much is Sabathia really worth?

Now you guys better read this whole thing because I`ve been working on this post since before my computer broke.

The Yankees just made the biggest offer for a pitcher in history and now may have to go even higher with the Angels now in the mix. Their's even talk of a 160 million dollar deal. Big deals for pitchers have largely been disasters so far. Is this guy worth it?

Back on my old blog I made a post about a pitching stat I invented. If you want to know how its calculated then you can check it out here. Be prepared to be bored and confused by the end of it unless you`re into that stuff. The point is I`m going use that stat and some of the other things I kind of made up to figure out how much C.C. is worth. Also, keep in mind I`m making this up as I go along so the answer at the end will be just as much of a surprise to me as it is to you.

First of all, lets establish that over the past three years Sabathia has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.Whether you`re a scout, live in your mother's basement or just an average fan this guy is great. He`s been the definition of ace, he has great stuff, great control, eats innings, and doesn't give up runs. His performance isn't a result of luck (like Barry Zito's was) either. His RCA last year (3.22, with 4.50 being average) showed he was very lucky but still one of the best in baseball.

The best way to get a clear monetary value for a pitcher is to take the amount of innings he pitched and the amount of runs he gave up in that time to what a replacement level pitcher would do in that same time. Instead of using the actual IP and runs totals I`m going to use what they should have done based on their SO/BB/Batted Ball totals. These are components of RCA. Every 10 runs is worth about 1 win and every win is worth about 5.5 million dollars. People much smarter than me have figured this out and if you`re interested in how they came to this I suggest google.

Here`s his RCA's for the past 3 years:

2006-3.61 (77 runs in 192 innings)

2007- 3.42 (85 runs in 223 innings

2008- 3.22 (74 runs in 240 innings)

The replacement level pitcher would usually have a RCA of roughly 5.50. Not so coincidentally, that was pretty close to Darell Rasner's ERA last year. Here`s what this hypothetical player would do if he took up Sabathia's innings:

2006- 5.50 (117 runs in 192 innings)

2007- 5.50 (136 runs in 223 innings)

2008- 5.50 (147 runs in 240 innings)

As I said before, 10 runs is worth 1 win generally and each win is worth 5.5 million dollars. Here`s Sabathia's final worth:

2006- 40 runs, 4 wins, 22 million dollars

2007- 51 runs, 5 wins, 27.5 million dollars

2008- 73 runs, 7 wins, 38.5 million dollars

The current Yankees offer in 6 years for 140 million dollars which is a little more than 23 million dollars a year. Over those 6 years we can't expect him to constantly have him repeat his MVP type 2008. However, a 6 year deal would carry him from ages 29 through 34. For him to average out at about his 2006 season is probably pretty reasonable. For now, he`s probably at somewhere between 2007 and 2008. I`m guessing he`ll stay at around that for the first two years, for the next two he`ll be at about 2006 levels and for the last two years he`ll be below even those. I`m going to estimate that 1 of those years will be spent on the DL. For now, 23 million is a bargain for him and is well worth the pain at the end of the deal when he will still probably be a pretty solid pitcher.

Another aspect to consider is the intangible value of him eating innings and saving the bullpen. The bullpen gets run down at the end of the year if the starters can never get past the 5th or 6th innings. I think the current Yankees offer would be a great deal if he would sign it. I`d be willing to go up to 150 million for 6 years as well. However, if he asks for more than that the Yanks will be making a deal out of desperation and the Yanks may need to turn to a Jake Peavy trade to fill out their rotation. Another year would also kill this for me. All in all though, they madea very good offer and if he accepts they can be happy with an ace for the next 6 years.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Sabathia to Giants

A couple days ago we heard that the Angels aren't after Sabathia as hard as rumored and that Mark Texiera is still their top priority.

Now another west coast team, the Giants, is being rumored to be preparing for a big offer for the ace pitcher. There's no way they willl go up to 140 million but it`ll be more than the Brewers offer of 100 million. I don't see them getting Sabathia. If the Yankees add just a bit more than their current offer than it`ll just be to much money for the Giants to go any farther.

Another interesting aspect is that Cain may become available if the Giants acquire Sabathia.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Angels to match Yanks?

John Perrotto thinks that the Angels may be willing to match the Yankees offer of 140 million dollars for C.C. Sabathia. If this happens I doubt we will be seeing Sabathia in pinstripes. He loves California and if the money is equal he`ll jump for the chance to play near home.

If this happens should the Yankees go higher? How much? And should they then turn their focus to Peavy or just settle for Lowe/Burnett/Sheets?

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

The Votes Are In...

OK, so we set up our first (of many!) Chuck Knoblog poll. It has been a while so I thought I would post the results and announce the next poll. Here are the results:


  • CC: 84 Votes (78%)
  • Sheets: 16 Votes (14%)
  • Dunn: 12 Votes (11%)
  • Texieria: 60 Votes (56%)
  • Lowe: 22 Votes (20%)
  • Burnett: 38 Votes (35%)
Total Votes: 107

That was a great poll everyone thanks for participating! Now the next poll is up and the question is:

Do you support the signing of Nick Swisher?

Alright the poll is live on the right side of the page. Happy Voting! New Poll is right here>>>

Be sure to vote!

Friday, November 14, 2008

Sabathia Offer

Anthony McArron claims that the Yankees intial offer to Sabathia is 6 years for 140 million dollars. That`s a little over 23 million dollars a year for Sabathia from ages 28-33. I think that its worth it for an ace like Sabathia. I don't think anyone else will come close to that offer. However, the Giants have already spoken with Sabathia's agents. If they become serious, they fit the profile of west coast and NL team that Sabathia may be looking for.

Yankees To Offer Deals to Big Name Pitchers

The Yankees are offering deals to CC, Burnett and Lowe. The 3 offers together will total around 250 million together. The offer to CC will exceed Johan's deal of 137 million. I think that it is very aggressive to go after all three of them. I personally do not like Burnett and think he will just end up getting injured. If all three are signed (not likely) imagine the rotation...

Tuesday, October 28, 2008


The general opinion in baseball is that Sabathia will sign with the Yankees.

They also may have interest in Matt Holliday. I don't see the point. He`ll get an expensive extension after the year anyway so why not just sign Texiera or Dunn?

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Sabathia and the Union

Ken Davidoff believes C.C. Sabathia may feel pressure from the players union to go to the highest bidder.

Sunday, October 5, 2008


C.C. Sabathia is going to consider all teams as a free agent this offseason. If this is true I`d be shocked to see him not come to the Yankees. However, its quite possible this is just a negotiating scheme by Sabathia.

Thursday, September 25, 2008


Buster Olney has a good post on his blog. He has some news on C.C. Sabathia. He think the Yankees will offer him about 140 million dollars while nobody else will give him more than 90 to 100 million. This makes me feel like we may have more of a chance at getting the ace. It might be tough for him to turn down 40 to 50 million dollars to play near home.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008


Jon Heyman is reporting that Sabathia does not want to play for the Yankees. This is not the first time we`ve heard something to that effect. I`m dissapointed by this situation. I`d be very surprised to see them get the ace pitcher. I see Ben Sheets as a much more realistic option at this point. I`d certainly be happy with this rotation:

1) Wang
2) Sheets
3) Mussina
4) Joba
5) Hughes/Pettitte

If we have to settle for Burnett though or fail to get even him we may need to work out a trade. As I`ve stated before, Damon is a candidate to be traded. With a few prospects (short of Jackson or Hughes) he might be able to bring in a good starter.

I`m worried about the rotation though. With Joba starting the year in the bullpen I don't know how they`re going to pull this off. A lot will become clearer early on when Pettitte/Mussina make their decisions.