Showing posts with label Hall of Fame. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hall of Fame. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

#17

We all know the season's just about over but their's still a few reasons to watch the games. One is to see if Mike Mussina will get to 20 wins. Although its a next to meaningless stat, the writers who vote for the Hall of Fame value it highly. Having his first 20 win season at Mussina's age would go a long way for his chances.

A-Rod and Nady both hit HR's. Nady's seemed like it hit the ceiling of Tropicana Field and A-Rod's tied Mike Schmidt. Is A-Rod the best player to ever play third base? His next HR will give him the most by anyone who has spent significant time at the position.

Joba looked good in his inning and a third as well.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Hey! That's a Bad Buster Olney!

You may have seen my response to an earlier Buster Olney article already, but he has a response to the many emails he has received as a result of that particular idiotic piece.

Adjusted OPS+ is a useful number. And if this your be-all, end-all statistic, keep in mind that:

  • Mark McGwire and Frank Thomas rank higher than Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Joe DiMaggio.
  • Jim Thome ranks higher than A-Rod and Gary Sheffield.
  • Lance Berkman ranks higher than Ken Griffey Jr.
  • Brian Giles ranks higher than George Brett, Al Kaline, Orlando Cepeda, Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew and Roberto Clemente.
  • Adam Dunn ranks higher than Eddie Murray.

He forgets to add that Jim Rice is tied with Ryan Klesko and Ellis Burks.

And if you think that Adjusted OPS+ is a set of numbers that generally creates a level statistical playing field for all of the eras of baseball, then you'd have to ignore the following. Of the top 63 players all time in OPS+, there are:

  • Nineteen players who performed the bulk of their careers in the years leading up to 1920.
  • Eight players who performed the bulk of their careers in the years from 1920-1939.
  • Seventeen players who have performed the bulk of their careers from 1990-2007.
  • And a total of 17 players from the 50-year period of 1940-89.

First of all, why 63? Is it because if you used say, the top 100, it would create a level statistical playing field? Or is it because 63 is such a nice round number? Also, he forgets the most important thing about OPS+. 9 of the Top 11 are white!!!! OPS+ is a racist stat!!! Did you know that there is only one Jew in the top 21!? With all the Jews in the history of baseball, there is only one in the top 21!?!?!?

It's not a perfect statistic. There aren't any perfect statistics.

True. But it is a hell of a lot closer to perfect than homers or RBI or hits, or ANY OTHER COUNTING STAT.

While I'd generally agree that to focus on building a Hall of Famer's credentials around a single year of MVP voting might be dubious, the numbers cited in Friday's column accounts for hundreds of votes from every AL city over more than a decade. A lot of writers who watched Rice play daily, at the time he was on the field -- rather than through the time-machine prism of Adjusted OPS+ -- thought he was pretty damn good.

So one year of MVP voting has no bearing on a player's ability, but many years is? Okay, I can see your reasoning here. You're saying that a lot of MVP votes over a period of time means he was good for a while, but then you remember that people like Buster Olney get to vote for MVP, and then you realize how meaningless it is. Buster is right about one thing. Jim Rice was a pretty damn good player. That's it. Pretty damn good. Not Hall of Fame good.

Look, I've never met Jim Rice, didn't grow up a Red Sox fan, don't think he is one of the very elite players of all time. I understand why someone wouldn't vote for him (but don't agree). But to portray his career as entirely unworthy of Hall of Fame consideration is silly.

Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. "...don't think he is one of the very elite players of all time." WHAT THE FUCK?!?!?!?!?! Then why do you want him in the hall. You just admitted that you think he was simply a good player. Then why did you vote for him?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Does he not realize how stupid that is? Also, nobody said he is unworthy of consideration. If he was unworthy for consideration, you wouldn't write seven articles about him every day, Buster. If he was unworthy for consideration, he wouldn't be on the ballot.

Buster, please just take a few days off to save us from your idiocy.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Juice Gossage?

The New York Post recently interviewed Goose Gossage, who said he probably would have used steroids had they been prevalant in his time. "I would have probably done it," Goose Gossage said, referring to steroids. "I'm a free spirit. I like to have fun. I was a competitor. Chances are I would have done it too."

This is an interesting comment for someone who just got into the Hall of Fame after a long wait.

Why Does Buster Olney Have a Job?

Buster Olney is outraged at the fact that Jim Rice is still not in the Hall of Fame, and claims that his statistics are actually really good when viewed in the context of the time he played.
During Jim Rice's incredible 1978 season, a total of two American League players had on-base percentages over .400: Rod Carew, with .411, and Ken Singleton, at .409. In 2007, eight AL players achieved an OBP of .400 or higher. In fact, in the seven seasons played since the start of 2001, there already have been 42 AL players who have posted OBPs of .400 or better; in the entire decade, of 1970-79, there were only 36 AL players who achieved OBPs of .400 or better. It was a time of less offense and fewer runs, a time when teams didn't value walks the way they do now, a time when the strike zone was larger, a time when hitting 20 homers and driving in 80 runs was an excellent year. So it's almost laughable to hear and read about how Rice was nothing more than a very good player in his time. Look, if you stick his statistics into offensive formulas tailored for the way the game was played in the '90s, he's not going to look as good. Giving him demerits because he failed to draw walks is like diminishing what Pedro Martinez has accomplished because he has only two 20-win seasons.
Olney is right that the overall skill level in baseball often changes over the years. Unfortunately, there is no statistic that allows to compare players from different eras. Oh, wait. What's that? There is? Yes. There is. Actually, OPS+ and Eqa+ are both good for comparing players from different eras. For those of you who don't know about OPS+, it is calculated by dividing a players OPS by the league average, then multiplied by 100. If a player's OPS+ is over 100, he is above average. For those of you who don't know what Eqa is, an explanation can be found here.

Jim Rice's career OPS+ is 128. Yes, its above average, but given that Rice was a poor defender and didn't play very long, it is way too low to be a Hall of Famer. His career Eqa, adjusted for all-time, so it can be used to compare players across eras, is .294. Eqa is measured on the same scale as batting average, so a .294 Eqa is okay.

Jim Rice was a good player. At times, he was a very good player. As you all know, it is not the Hall of Very Good. It is the Hall of Fame.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Goose Gossage Elected to Hall

Goose Gossage was finally elected to the Hall of Fame today, in his ninth year on the ballot. He recieved 86% of the vote. He is just the fifth reliever to be elected and certainly deserves it, and Baseball Prospectus has got the numbers to prove it. Red Sox fans will whine that Jim Rice didn't, make it, but he really didn't deserve to. He played twelve years and was great for a few of them, but that's besides the point. Congratulations again to Goose.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Knoblauch's First Year On HOF Ballot Apporaching


Chuck Knoblauch, the fundamental fielder that Yankee fans loved in the glory years of '98, '99 and 2000 is getting his first crack of the ballot. Of course it is not probable that he will be accepted but hey, you never know.