Sunday, January 18, 2009
No that is not a typo. My point is that Johan Santana's contract is going to come back to bite the Mets in the end. Largely ignored in the debates raging over Santana was the fact that he was going to endup costing somebody a ton of money. Here`s his RCA's for the past three years:
2006- 3.10 (79 runs in 229 innings)
2007- 3.19 (77 runs in 217 innings)
2008- 4.02 (101 runs in 226 innings)
Just so you know, I checked the 2008 stats three times and they are correct. If you`re suddenly doubting the validity of this stat then I`d like to note that I did predict Barry Zito's sudden collapse using this stat.
I think by now you know what the replacement level guy does so here's what Santana is worth compared to him:
2006- 61 runs, 6.1 wins, 33.55 million dollars
2007- 55 runs, 5.5 wins, 30.25 million dollars
2008- 37 runs, 3.7 wins, 20.35 million dollars
This guy has been steadily declining since 2006. In fact, a quick glance at the stats shows that even 2006 was a drop-off from the previous year. In fact, every year has been inferior to his first full year in 2004. So why? He`s still pretty young.
Maybe it has something to do with the ridiculous amount of innings he`s thrown each year. Anyway, since 2004 his K/BB has been dropping fairly steadily, his LD% has risen, his K/9 has plummeted, and his BB/9 keeps climbing. For whatever reason he hit an early decline and its only going to get worse. He wasn't worth much more than the 17 million he earned last year and if he doesn't reverse this trend he`s going to end up weighing down the Mets payroll in coming years. Its only a matter of time before he gets hurt and misses a good chunk of a season as well.
No matter how Hughes, Jackson, and Kennedy do, unless Johan can bounceback, the Yanks were smart in their restraint. With the Sabathia signing, they got a better pitcher anyway and are in a better position for the future.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Johan Santana is now officially a Met. The extension is for six years and $137.5 million. He was given a $7 million bonus to his $13.25 million deal for this year. So in total it is seven years and $150.75 million, or an annual payment of $21.5 million. I've said it before and I'll say it again, that is a hell of a lot of money for a pitcher. Yeah, they're important, but they play once every five days. Santana will be thirty-six at the end of the deal, and those last few years could make the Mets regret this trade. Especially considering the players it would take to get him, I'm glad the Yankees didn't make this deal. It simply wasn't worth it to them. As Pete Abraham pointed out, with the luxury tax, they would be paying him $28 million per year. It makes a lot more sense for the Mets and I think this is a good deal for them. So congratulations Mets, your are now the fourth best team in baseball.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Johan Santana has finally been traded- to the Mets. Not the best outcome, but I guess its better than Boston and at least he's out of the AL. The deal is for Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. This package tells me that Bill Smith is not ready to be the Twins' GM. If he had acted at the winter meetings, he could have gotten a better deal. In my opinion, both the Yankees' and Red Sox' offers from December were better than this one, but Smith waited, and the Yanks and Sox took back their offers, and this was the best one left. The Mets definitely won this deal. Altough all those prospects are solid, none are going to be superstars. Gomez is a leadoff hitter, Humber hasn't lived up to expectations, and I don't know much about Mulvey and Guerra, but I have heard good, not great, things about them. The Twins should not have done this deal without Fernando Martinez, but they panicked and did it, instead of holding Santana until the all-star break.
The Mets still have to sign Johan to an extension, and they say they won't go higher than 5 years, but they will go up to $25 million, which is a hell of a lot for a guy who plays one out of five days.
Monday, January 28, 2008
- Erik Bedard is heading to Seattle. Oh wait, no he's not. Oh, he is again. I'll comment on this when it's all over.
- A Johan Santana trade is expected to go down in the next ten days. Just like it was going to happen at the winter meetings.
- David Cone will join the YES broadcast booth. He can't be worse than Michael Kay.
- The Red Sox acquired David Aardsma for two minor league pitchers
- Pedro Feliz is a Phillie
Saturday, January 26, 2008
"My strong recommendation is we stick with our young pitching staff and keep it in-house.That's my recommendation, and we've fought hard to take one step back to take two giant steps forward."I agree, and it looks like they will stick with the youngsters. He later mentioned that Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu were out of shape last spring. Hopefully that will change this year. He then said that Bernie's 2005 season was poor, and Joe Torre should not have played him over Melky.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
In other news: The (Devil) Rays locked up James Shields with a very creative contract. Take note Yankees. Also, the Mets are now the frontrunners for Johan Santana, pretty much because they're still interested.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Anyway, I found this article by Vince Gennaro, a baseball economist. He analyzes the possible Johan Santana trades and it is very interesting, you should definitely check it out. With regards to the possible Santana to Yankees deal, he says it does not make financial sense for the Yanks. He describes the prospects necessary to complete the deal as a tariff, because Santana would require a large sum of money to be signed long-term. I agree with this 100%. He doesn't say it specifically, but implies that it would make sense to sign him as a free agent after this year.
He later adds that it makes even less sense for the Red Sox, but a case could be made for a Mets trade.
Monday, January 14, 2008
"It's still in the deciding process," Steinbrenner said Monday night outside Legends Field at the Yankees' spring training complex. "We're still discussing it. There's still a little talk back and forth." (Source:SI)
He went on to say there never even was an official offer:
"There wasn't an official offer anyway. You can't withdraw something that wasn't there," Steinbrenner said. "There was no official offer on the table at this time."
When will all this madness end?
*Also it exactly one month until pitchers and catchers- Feb 14- it begins*
Friday, January 11, 2008
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Found this over at Replacement Level: It is a very interesting study on the tendencies of Chien-Ming Wang.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Thursday, December 20, 2007
“When this grossly inaccurate story broke in October 2006, Roger said it was untrue and the Los Angeles Times chose not to believe him. As the record now clearly proves, Roger was telling the truth then, just as he continues to tell the truth today. Roger Clemens did not take steroids, and anybody who says he did had better start looking for a hell of a good lawyer.” (Source: Pete Abraham)
Looks like Clemens will be taking legal action.
In other news, Hank Steinbrenner ran his mouth again. He said that there is still an outside chance that the Yankees Land Johan Santana. Well, there is an outside chance that a lot things happen. Today is a really slow news day, which is why stuff like this is being reported.
Derek Jeter is a cool guy. He hosted an advanced screening for 500 hundrend NYC school children of the movie "Water Horse: Deep Sea Legend," as part of his Turn 2 Foundation. We pay so much attention to guys who cheat or engage in otherwise bad behavior (like dog-fighting and rain-making and Curt Schilling), and it makes you forget that there are still a few good guys left, like Derek Jeter.