Showing posts with label Johan Santana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Johan Santana. Show all posts

Sunday, January 18, 2009

In Retrospect....

Thank god the Yankees didn't trade for Johan Santana last winter.

No that is not a typo. My point is that Johan Santana's contract is going to come back to bite the Mets in the end. Largely ignored in the debates raging over Santana was the fact that he was going to endup costing somebody a ton of money. Here`s his RCA's for the past three years:

2006- 3.10 (79 runs in 229 innings)

2007- 3.19 (77 runs in 217 innings)

2008- 4.02 (101 runs in 226 innings)

Just so you know, I checked the 2008 stats three times and they are correct. If you`re suddenly doubting the validity of this stat then I`d like to note that I did predict Barry Zito's sudden collapse using this stat.

I think by now you know what the replacement level guy does so here's what Santana is worth compared to him:

2006- 61 runs, 6.1 wins, 33.55 million dollars

2007- 55 runs, 5.5 wins, 30.25 million dollars

2008- 37 runs, 3.7 wins, 20.35 million dollars

This guy has been steadily declining since 2006. In fact, a quick glance at the stats shows that even 2006 was a drop-off from the previous year. In fact, every year has been inferior to his first full year in 2004. So why? He`s still pretty young.

Maybe it has something to do with the ridiculous amount of innings he`s thrown each year. Anyway, since 2004 his K/BB has been dropping fairly steadily, his LD% has risen, his K/9 has plummeted, and his BB/9 keeps climbing. For whatever reason he hit an early decline and its only going to get worse. He wasn't worth much more than the 17 million he earned last year and if he doesn't reverse this trend he`s going to end up weighing down the Mets payroll in coming years. Its only a matter of time before he gets hurt and misses a good chunk of a season as well.

No matter how Hughes, Jackson, and Kennedy do, unless Johan can bounceback, the Yanks were smart in their restraint. With the Sabathia signing, they got a better pitcher anyway and are in a better position for the future.

Friday, February 1, 2008

Santana Deal Done

UPDATE: Santana Passed Physical

Johan Santana is now officially a Met. The extension is for six years and $137.5 million. He was given a $7 million bonus to his $13.25 million deal for this year. So in total it is seven years and $150.75 million, or an annual payment of $21.5 million. I've said it before and I'll say it again, that is a hell of a lot of money for a pitcher. Yeah, they're important, but they play once every five days. Santana will be thirty-six at the end of the deal, and those last few years could make the Mets regret this trade. Especially considering the players it would take to get him, I'm glad the Yankees didn't make this deal. It simply wasn't worth it to them. As Pete Abraham pointed out, with the luxury tax, they would be paying him $28 million per year. It makes a lot more sense for the Mets and I think this is a good deal for them. So congratulations Mets, your are now the fourth best team in baseball.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

It's Finally Over

Update 9:45: The 72-hour negotiating window has now begun

Johan Santana has finally been traded- to the Mets. Not the best outcome, but I guess its better than Boston and at least he's out of the AL. The deal is for Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. This package tells me that Bill Smith is not ready to be the Twins' GM. If he had acted at the winter meetings, he could have gotten a better deal. In my opinion, both the Yankees' and Red Sox' offers from December were better than this one, but Smith waited, and the Yanks and Sox took back their offers, and this was the best one left. The Mets definitely won this deal. Altough all those prospects are solid, none are going to be superstars. Gomez is a leadoff hitter, Humber hasn't lived up to expectations, and I don't know much about Mulvey and Guerra, but I have heard good, not great, things about them. The Twins should not have done this deal without Fernando Martinez, but they panicked and did it, instead of holding Santana until the all-star break.

The Mets still have to sign Johan to an extension, and they say they won't go higher than 5 years, but they will go up to $25 million, which is a hell of a lot for a guy who plays one out of five days.

Monday, January 28, 2008

MLB News and Notes

A brief recap from around the majors:
That is all.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Cash Speaks

Brian Cashman, along with Theo Epstein spoke yesterday to an audience at William Paterson University in New Jersey. He voiced his opinion on many topics, including the possible Johan Santana trade. He had this to say:
"My strong recommendation is we stick with our young pitching staff and keep it in-house.That's my recommendation, and we've fought hard to take one step back to take two giant steps forward."
I agree, and it looks like they will stick with the youngsters. He later mentioned that Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu were out of shape last spring. Hopefully that will change this year. He then said that Bernie's 2005 season was poor, and Joe Torre should not have played him over Melky.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Pirates Attempt to Get Even Worse

Are you a 32 year-old major league pitcher? Have you never thrown over 200 innings in a season? Is your career ERA 5.09 (90 ERA+)? Well, the Pittsburgh Pirates have a job for you. Jaret Wright, I know you all remember him, has signed a minor-league deal with the Pirates and will make $800k if he makes the major league roster.

In other news: The (Devil) Rays locked up James Shields with a very creative contract. Take note Yankees. Also, the Mets are now the frontrunners for Johan Santana, pretty much because they're still interested.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Santana Not Worth The Price

I am writing this from deep in the heart of Red Sox Nation, where I am visiting family. As you might expect, everyone here is a hick, and this is being written on the only computer in a five-mile radius. All I have been hearing is, "Don't worry, maybe the Bruins won't win the Stanley Cup," as well as the proclamation of Jacoby Ellsbury as the second coming of Jesus and how laptop-boy is better than Hughes.

Anyway, I found this article by Vince Gennaro, a baseball economist. He analyzes the possible Johan Santana trades and it is very interesting, you should definitely check it out. With regards to the possible Santana to Yankees deal, he says it does not make financial sense for the Yanks. He describes the prospects necessary to complete the deal as a tariff, because Santana would require a large sum of money to be signed long-term. I agree with this 100%. He doesn't say it specifically, but implies that it would make sense to sign him as a free agent after this year.

He later adds that it makes even less sense for the Red Sox, but a case could be made for a Mets trade.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Here We Go Again

Remember when we said the Santana rumor was dead? Well Hank "The Tank" pulled a fast one and is now denying the reports that the offer was withdrawn. He had this to say:

"It's still in the deciding process," Steinbrenner said Monday night outside Legends Field at the Yankees' spring training complex. "We're still discussing it. There's still a little talk back and forth." (Source:SI)

He went on to say there never even was an official offer:

"There wasn't an official offer anyway. You can't withdraw something that wasn't there," Steinbrenner said. "There was no official offer on the table at this time."

When will all this madness end?

*Also it exactly one month until pitchers and catchers- Feb 14- it begins*

Yankees Pull Santana Offer

The Yankees have pulled their offer for Johan Santana off of the table according to ESPN Radio's Andrew Marchand. You can breathe easy now Phil you are safe. Now it seems the Mets and the Red Sox and the two main teams in the hunt for Santana. Recent news points to the Mets as the frontrunners.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Yankees Out On Santana

The Yankees are no longer talking to the Twins about Johan Santana according to Ken Rosenthal. If that is true Hank "The Tank" should announce it soon. Then again, this could just as easily mean that the Yanks and Twins have already worked out a deal and Santana is on his way to New York right now, but probably not.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Hank says: Would Not Excede 5 Years on Johan

Hank "The Tank" Steinbrenner told Kat O'Brien that he would not exceed five years on a deal if they did manage to land Johan. Remember, if Johan does not like the contract he might not wave his no trade clause.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Yankees Out on Santana (Again)?

Pete Abe said this morning that he finds it hard to believe the Yankees will re-enter the Johan Santana sweepstakes. This is of course pure speculation, as is most of the Santana-related news. However, I think this is a fairly safe assumption to make and am pleased by that fact. Although it would be nice to have Johan on our team, he is not worth the price. I don't see him going anywhere until at least the trade deadline, although he has stated that he will veto any deal after the season begins.

Found this over at Replacement Level: It is a very interesting study on the tendencies of Chien-Ming Wang.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Santana Trade to Wait Until Spring Training?

According to Jayson Stark, the Twins may not trade Johan Santana for "several weeks." Oh, No! What will we talk about! I think that this just makes the deal less likely to get done. If the Red Sox or Yankees were really serious about this, a deal would have happened at the Winter Meetings, or soon after. The Mets and Mariners are just hanging around to keep the faith of their fans. I would bet Santana will be a Twin at the start of the season.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Twins Take Kennedy Out of Demands

Murray Chass reports that the Twins are now demanding Hughes, Jeff Marquez, Melky, and presumably a fourth, maybe Mitch Hilligoss? I still don't make this trade. It simply doesn't help the Yankees enough. It may not be enough to surpass the Red Sox in the standings this year, and in the future it is even less of a help, as Santana will be on the decline and Hughes on the rise. Regardless, I still think this is as good or better than Crisp, Lester, Masterson and Lowrie.

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Santana To Yankees Talks Dead?

According to Kat O'Brien, the Yankees may be out of the running for Johan Santana. A source said, "I don't see it happening. We pulled out in Nashville, and we haven't put an offer back on the table." Personally, I am glad with this news. Yes, Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, but I don't think he is worth Hughes, Melky and others. We can go after him after this year, but I would be careful about signing a pitcher to a six or seven year deal.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

More Clemens and Pettitte Non-Stories

Contrary to a previous story in the LA Times, Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte were not named in the Jason Grimsley affidavit. Basically, that's it. Nothing more. Pretty much insignificant. Doesn't change a thing. Pettitte still used HGH a few years ago and there are still doubts about Clemens. The only thing semi-newsworthy is this quote from Clemens.
“When this grossly inaccurate story broke in October 2006, Roger said it was untrue and the Los Angeles Times chose not to believe him. As the record now clearly proves, Roger was telling the truth then, just as he continues to tell the truth today. Roger Clemens did not take steroids, and anybody who says he did had better start looking for a hell of a good lawyer.” (Source: Pete Abraham)

Looks like Clemens will be taking legal action.

In other news, Hank Steinbrenner ran his mouth again. He said that there is still an outside chance that the Yankees Land Johan Santana. Well, there is an outside chance that a lot things happen. Today is a really slow news day, which is why stuff like this is being reported.

Derek Jeter
is a cool guy. He hosted an advanced screening for 500 hundrend NYC school children of the movie "Water Horse: Deep Sea Legend," as part of his Turn 2 Foundation. We pay so much attention to guys who cheat or engage in otherwise bad behavior (like dog-fighting and rain-making and Curt Schilling), and it makes you forget that there are still a few good guys left, like Derek Jeter.