Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Late Predictions: Part 3 (The End)

Just a few more random predictions I wanted to quickly throw out there, some obvious, some less.
  • The New York Yankees will defeat the New York Mets in the World Series.
  • No team will win over 100 games.
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka will revert to 2007 form and have an ERA over 4.00.
  • Aaron Harang will bounceback nicely and return to the front of the rotation starter he was before 2008.
  • Andy Sonnanstine will come close to winning 20 games but miss out by a few.
  • Derek Jeter will continue to show signs of decline and the media's collective heads will explode when he isn't offered an extension.
  • Phil Hughes will pitch well in place of somebody's injury.
  • Andy Pettitte will bounceback and retire after the year.
  • Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano will both have career years.
  • Xavier Nady will revert to his previous form (and doesn't belong on late '90's Yankees teams).
  • Rivera will display signs of humanity (as in an ERA slightly over 3.00 with a few blown saves) and the media will demand Joba's conversion to the bullpen.

Alright, that's all I got right now.

Late Predictions: Part 2

Again, sorry for the lateness.

NL East- Mets- I think this is finally the year where they break the streak of chokes. They did very well shoring up their bullpen and their offense has never been a problem for them. The tandem of Putz-Rodriguez is probably the best we've seen since Rivera-Wetteland (off the top of my head at least). The core of this team is very strong. Santana, Wright, Reyes, and Beltran are all top tier players. The only visible weakness on this team is the rotation. After Santana things look very bad. They need to hope for big improvements from Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey. They were very lucky last year and still weren't great. The Phillies could easily win the division though. Their first four guys are all good pitchers and Brad Lidge is a top closer. So, they're a good bet to repeat if they can get in. Personally, I'll be rooting for them. The Braves revamped their rotation but still aren't good enough to hang with the Phillies and Mets in my opinion. The East is clearly the best divison in both leagues this year.

NL Central- Cubs- I don't think even the most optimistic Cardinals fan is picking anyone other than the Cubs here. They dominated the division last year and now the Brewers don't have that killer 1-2 combo of Sabathia-Sheets anymore. The Cardinals, Reds, and Brewers aren't bad but the Cubs are going to run away with the divison again. Even losing Kerry Wood isn't going to stop these guys. The only thing they need to watch out for is a let down from Ryan Dempster. That won't be enough either though. They are the only team in the NL with a realistic chance at winning 100 games.

NL West- Diamondbacks- I'm going out on a limb here and going against the Dodgers. Losing Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux is going to hurt them and their's no way Manny will repeat what he did for them last year. I`m afraid Jonathan Broxton may become one of Joe Torre's whipping boys as well. The D'Backs have an excellent rotation as well. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are both aces in the truest sense of the word. Their young offense is also very nice. The only mistake they made was letting Randy Johnson go to the Giants and replacing him with Jon Garland. If it wasn't for that, they'd be the clear favorite for the divison. Adam Dunn is also a tough loss for their lineup to take. However, I think they really have a shot.

NL Wild Card- Dodgers- This should come down to a battle between the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and another random team that will inevitably surprise everybody and make a run (Marlins maybe?). Both the Braves and Phillies are better than the Dodgers. However, they're going to beat up on each other and bring their records down. The Dodgers do have a very nice young team and if they get in they'd be a serious World Series candidate.

One more short part in this series is coming for awards, playoffs, and other random stuff. I'll do it either later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Late Predictions: Part One

I apologize for being a little late on this but I`m going to throw together some predictions for the divisions and whatnot. I know predictions are generally futile exercises but they're fun to look back on at the end of the year.

AL East- Yankees- I`ve covered this area more extensively than any sane human being should.

AL Central- Indians- I don't think the Twins are as good as most people think they are. They're probably only about an 80 win team with Joe Mauer healthy. Unfortunately for them, he's not. I also have no faith in the White Sox who appear to be run by the luckiest idiots in baseball. Nor do I think the Tigers have what it takes to bounceback. The Royals have definitely made major improvements but aren't quite ready to compete. So, I go with the Indians. The biggest question they have is whether Cliff Lee can repeat his 2008 success or not. I don't see why not but fluke years have happened before. The Indians are a smart team that had some bad luck with injuries last year and might be able to take the division this year.

AL West- Athletics- I have to think that Billy Beane decided to go for it all this year for a reason. They made some big additions this offseason. Matt Holliday is a great hitter in the middle of the lineup. Giambi is also still a nice hitter for them, even if he can't field. They got Orlando Cabrera at a bargain price as well. If they could wring another solid year out of Nomar Garciaparra it would be great for them as well. All in all their offense looks very nice. The pitching is extremely young and inexperienced though. I have more faith in Billy Beane's ability to judge pitching than just about any other GM though. The Angels also seem to be a little overrated this year. Vladimir Guerrerro is aging and the rotation is riddled with injuries this year. Joe Saunders is hardly an inspiring ace.

AL Wild Card- Red Sox- I'd be shocked if the wild card came from somewhere other than the east and I've covered the East very extensively.

I'll have a post on the NL later tonight.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Playoff Predictions

Here we go, let me know your predictions in the comments:
ALDS
Angels over Red Sox
Rays over White Sox
NLDS
Phillies over Brewers
Cubs over Dodgers
ALCS
Angels over Rays
NLCS
Cubs over Phillies
World Series
Cubs over Angels

There you have it, the Cubs will end their 100 year drought and win the World Series.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

A Pleasant Surprise

Sports Illustrated's baseball preview issue came today, and as the title of this post suggests, I was pleasantly surprised. SI continues to prove itself as the best publication of the mainstream media. First of all, I was surprised at how reasonable the playoff projections were. First of all, SI has the Tigers winning ninety games this year, as opposed to ESPN's prediction of 177, as well as the Yankees winning the AL east. They have the Tigers over the Cubs in the World Series, but I won't argue here, as the playoffs are basically impossible to predict. In the team previews, SI truly shines. They still include useless stats such as batting average, RBI, runs, W-L record, and saves, but they now include K/9, BB/9, as well as a new influence on OBP. They even included PECOTA projections, as well as a mention of OPS+ (!). I completely understand the inclusion of the older, useless statistics, because this will keep the ignorant majority happy, but the transition to more sabermetrically inclined statistics will help spread these stats.

Monday, March 24, 2008

Predictions for the 08 Season

Here are my projections for the 2008 season. They are basically just my feelings, they are not statistically based. If you want more thoughtful projections look at Pecota or the Hardball Times or the recent post on Replacement Level. There is your disclaimer, so don't tell me how stupid I am. Again, sorry for the lack of posts. Spring Training is painfully boring and Charlie and I have both been quite busy.

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Card: Red Sox
The AL, unlike the NL, has at least five legitimate playoff contenders, with the Indians as the odd man out. However, I think the Angels are the only lock, as their division sucks. A losing streak or two could be the difference between the playoffs or not for the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers and Indians.
Team to Watch: Tampa Bay Rays- made a lot of noise in the offseason, and although they won't contend this year, they could scratch .500.
Players to watch- Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, Phil Hughes, Joba, IPK, Laptop Boy

Now for the NL:
NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Rockies
NL Wild Card: Phillies
Okay, I take it back. The NL does have quite a few legit playoff contenders, but for different reasons. The NL is competitive because of a lack of standout teams, but a large concentration of average-slightly above average teams. I think the Mets could probably win the AL West, but no other NL team would make the playoffs in the AL.
Team to watch: Mets- Diamondbacks- Can they have another successful year with a very young roster, and despite the fact that they were outscored last year?
Players to watch: Troy Tulowitzki, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller

There you have it: The Chuck Knoblog's Unofficial Division-by-Division Predictions for the 2008 Major League Baseball Season- catchy, isn't it?

Tomorrow the Red Sox play the Oakland A's in Japan, at 6AM. It'll be nice to wake up to baseball after being without it for five months.