Showing posts with label RCA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RCA. Show all posts

Saturday, January 17, 2009

What is Ben Sheets Worth?

Interest in this guy has been near non-existent and its understandable with his injury problems. However, when he`s pitching he's an ace. I greatly preferred him over A.J. Burnett and now the the price tag on Sheets has sunk so low its worth considering him over Pettitte. Like Pettitte, he might take a one year deal so he can prove himself again and cash in next year with a weaker free agent class.

Here`s a look at his RCA stats:

2006- 2.83 RCA (34 runs in 109 innings)

2007- 4.24 RCA (67 runs in 142 innings)

2008- 3.89 RCA (84 runs in 194 innings)

Compared to the replacement level guy.....

2006- 5.50 RCA (67 runs in 109 innings)

2007- 5.50 RCA (87 runs in 142 innings)

2008- 5.50 RCA (119 runs in 194 innings)

So we have one year of ridiculously awesome performance for half a season, a mediocore year in which he missed a good chunk of the season and a very good year in which he ate up a lot of innings.

His worth compared to a replacement guy:

2006- 33 runs, 3.3 wins, 18.15 million dollars

2007- 20 runs, 2 wins, 11 million dollars

2008- 35 runs, 3.5 wins, 19.25 million dollars

Man, they made a mistake with Burnett.

This is a very interesting guy. He`s not the type of player the Yankees need (a back-end innings eater) but if Pettitte is ridiculous in his demands then they would be well served picking up Ben Sheets on a one year deal with an option for a second. Some think he may have to settle for under 10 million and for him that's an incredible bargain.

Over the past three years his total worth was very close to Pettitte's (About 47 million for Pettitte and 48 million for Sheets). Cost ignored I`d pick Pettitte just for nostalgia and the stabilizing force he provides. However, if Sheets costs less I`d pick him up. If they fail to get either of them I`m going to be very dissapointed.

If they do get Sheets, its interesting that they have five potential aces in their rotation. Sabathia is Sabathia, Burnett is a borderline ace when he`s healthy, Joba showed that kind of potential last year, Wang is also a borderline ace, and Sheets is as good as any of them when he`s on.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

What Is Oliver Perez Worth?

After yesterday's post on Oliver Perez one of the commenters suggested I make one of these things for Perez. So, here it is.

Like I said yesterday, Perez is an okay pitcher. Probably a little below average but he`s still young and has room to improve. The two problems he has are walks and frustrating inconsistency. Neither of which are good for a team which will be on the brink of playoff contention like the Yanks who need to be sure they`re getting a solid 6 innings every time out from their 5th starter. That's my impression at least. Does he strike out enough to make it worth it? In a word, no. Here`s his RCA numbers for the last three years:

2006-5.61 (71 runs in 114 innings)

2007- 3.58 (72 runs in 181 innings)

2008- 5.08 (105 runs in 186 innings)

In comparison a replacement level pitcher:

2006- 5.50 (67 runs in 114 innings)

2007- 5.50 (111 runs in 181 innings)

2008- 5.50 (114 runs in 186 innings)

Like I said, really inconsistent. In 2006 and 2008 he was awful and in 2007 he was an ace. He`s only 27 and could figure things out but not with the Yankees. The transition to the AL East would be awful for him. Besides this it locks up their 5 spots in the rotation long term which leaves Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves in a permanent state of filling in for injury unless you move Joba to the bullpen which weakens the team long-term. Perez is a risky signing and could turn out being a stroke of genius for a team with a good pitching coach but not with the Yankees.

For any other team here is his worth compared to a replacment level pitcher:

2006- 4 runs, .4 wins, 2.2 million dollars

2007- 39 runs, 3.9 wins, 21.45 million dollars

2008- 9 runs, .9 wins, 4.95 million dollars

Perez will probably get a three year deal from some NL team, who that is I`m not sure. Convenienty, we can add up what he deserved the past 3 years to get a ballpark figure of what he`s worth, which is 28.6 million dollars. That's a little under 10 million dollars a year, about what he should get. He`ll be 27 on Opening Day and he could be beginning his peak years so theirs a good chance he`ll outperform that. Again though, the Yankees aren't looking for a risky long-term project just a one year quick fix to give Hughes some extra time.

Friday, December 12, 2008

What is A.J. Burnett Worth?

I was planning to do the next of these posts on Ben Sheets who I`m very curious about and may actually be a better option than Derek Lowe. However, the Yankees have signed A.J. Burnett so I thought I should do one on him. I don't like him but I guess I should do a more careful analysis to be fair. I`ve been wrong before.

Burnett, along with Ben Sheets, is seen as an ace with injury problems. Plenty of people are speculating about a possible super Yankees rotation with Burnett and Sabathia signed. However, the question is whether or not What Burnett can do while healthy is worth his long injury problems.

You know the drill by now, here`s his RCA numbers:

2006- 3.86 (57 runs in 134 innings)

2007- 3.13 (57 runs in 164 innings)

2008- 3.60 (89 runs in 222 innings)

I`m a little surprised by those 2007 numbers. For some reason I`ve always tought of him as being slightly overrated as a pitcher besides the injury thing. However, had he pitched the whole year and been a bit more lucky then he owuld have been a real Cy Young candidate. However, again their's the injury issue.

A replacement level pitcher would have put up these numbers:

2006- 5.50 (82 runs in 134 innings)

2007- 5.50 (100 runs in 164 innings)

2008- 5.50 (136 runs 222 innings)

So, now here's his monetary values for the past three years:

2006-25 runs, 2.5 wins, 13.75 million dollars

2007- 43 runs, 4.3 wins, 23.65 million dollars

2008- 47 runs, 4.7 wins, 25.85 million dollars

2007 and 2008 are easily worth his coming contract. However, he`s rarely going to be as good as he was in 2007 and he`s aslo rarely going to eat up as many innings as he did in 2008. He`s also going to have a few injury plagued years like 2006 where his contract just isn't worth it. At best he matches Derek Lowe but he's much less consistent.

The only positives I can take from this is that he could have some really dominating years where he just puts everything together. He also has succeeded in the AL East. 5 years just isn't worth it though and Derek Lowe would have been a much safer bet to deliver season at a similar quality to what we`re hoping for from Burnett.

5 years at about 16 million a year is not worth it for Burnett. Either Lowe or Sheets would have been better picks.

Friday, December 5, 2008

How much is Sabathia really worth?

Now you guys better read this whole thing because I`ve been working on this post since before my computer broke.

The Yankees just made the biggest offer for a pitcher in history and now may have to go even higher with the Angels now in the mix. Their's even talk of a 160 million dollar deal. Big deals for pitchers have largely been disasters so far. Is this guy worth it?

Back on my old blog I made a post about a pitching stat I invented. If you want to know how its calculated then you can check it out here. Be prepared to be bored and confused by the end of it unless you`re into that stuff. The point is I`m going use that stat and some of the other things I kind of made up to figure out how much C.C. is worth. Also, keep in mind I`m making this up as I go along so the answer at the end will be just as much of a surprise to me as it is to you.

First of all, lets establish that over the past three years Sabathia has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.Whether you`re a scout, live in your mother's basement or just an average fan this guy is great. He`s been the definition of ace, he has great stuff, great control, eats innings, and doesn't give up runs. His performance isn't a result of luck (like Barry Zito's was) either. His RCA last year (3.22, with 4.50 being average) showed he was very lucky but still one of the best in baseball.

The best way to get a clear monetary value for a pitcher is to take the amount of innings he pitched and the amount of runs he gave up in that time to what a replacement level pitcher would do in that same time. Instead of using the actual IP and runs totals I`m going to use what they should have done based on their SO/BB/Batted Ball totals. These are components of RCA. Every 10 runs is worth about 1 win and every win is worth about 5.5 million dollars. People much smarter than me have figured this out and if you`re interested in how they came to this I suggest google.

Here`s his RCA's for the past 3 years:

2006-3.61 (77 runs in 192 innings)

2007- 3.42 (85 runs in 223 innings

2008- 3.22 (74 runs in 240 innings)

The replacement level pitcher would usually have a RCA of roughly 5.50. Not so coincidentally, that was pretty close to Darell Rasner's ERA last year. Here`s what this hypothetical player would do if he took up Sabathia's innings:

2006- 5.50 (117 runs in 192 innings)

2007- 5.50 (136 runs in 223 innings)

2008- 5.50 (147 runs in 240 innings)

As I said before, 10 runs is worth 1 win generally and each win is worth 5.5 million dollars. Here`s Sabathia's final worth:

2006- 40 runs, 4 wins, 22 million dollars

2007- 51 runs, 5 wins, 27.5 million dollars

2008- 73 runs, 7 wins, 38.5 million dollars

The current Yankees offer in 6 years for 140 million dollars which is a little more than 23 million dollars a year. Over those 6 years we can't expect him to constantly have him repeat his MVP type 2008. However, a 6 year deal would carry him from ages 29 through 34. For him to average out at about his 2006 season is probably pretty reasonable. For now, he`s probably at somewhere between 2007 and 2008. I`m guessing he`ll stay at around that for the first two years, for the next two he`ll be at about 2006 levels and for the last two years he`ll be below even those. I`m going to estimate that 1 of those years will be spent on the DL. For now, 23 million is a bargain for him and is well worth the pain at the end of the deal when he will still probably be a pretty solid pitcher.

Another aspect to consider is the intangible value of him eating innings and saving the bullpen. The bullpen gets run down at the end of the year if the starters can never get past the 5th or 6th innings. I think the current Yankees offer would be a great deal if he would sign it. I`d be willing to go up to 150 million for 6 years as well. However, if he asks for more than that the Yanks will be making a deal out of desperation and the Yanks may need to turn to a Jake Peavy trade to fill out their rotation. Another year would also kill this for me. All in all though, they madea very good offer and if he accepts they can be happy with an ace for the next 6 years.