Showing posts with label burnett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label burnett. Show all posts

Friday, December 12, 2008

What is A.J. Burnett Worth?

I was planning to do the next of these posts on Ben Sheets who I`m very curious about and may actually be a better option than Derek Lowe. However, the Yankees have signed A.J. Burnett so I thought I should do one on him. I don't like him but I guess I should do a more careful analysis to be fair. I`ve been wrong before.

Burnett, along with Ben Sheets, is seen as an ace with injury problems. Plenty of people are speculating about a possible super Yankees rotation with Burnett and Sabathia signed. However, the question is whether or not What Burnett can do while healthy is worth his long injury problems.

You know the drill by now, here`s his RCA numbers:


2006- 3.86 (57 runs in 134 innings)

2007- 3.13 (57 runs in 164 innings)

2008- 3.60 (89 runs in 222 innings)

I`m a little surprised by those 2007 numbers. For some reason I`ve always tought of him as being slightly overrated as a pitcher besides the injury thing. However, had he pitched the whole year and been a bit more lucky then he owuld have been a real Cy Young candidate. However, again their's the injury issue.

A replacement level pitcher would have put up these numbers:

2006- 5.50 (82 runs in 134 innings)

2007- 5.50 (100 runs in 164 innings)


2008- 5.50 (136 runs 222 innings)

So, now here's his monetary values for the past three years:

2006-25 runs, 2.5 wins, 13.75 million dollars

2007- 43 runs, 4.3 wins, 23.65 million dollars

2008- 47 runs, 4.7 wins, 25.85 million dollars

2007 and 2008 are easily worth his coming contract. However, he`s rarely going to be as good as he was in 2007 and he`s aslo rarely going to eat up as many innings as he did in 2008. He`s also going to have a few injury plagued years like 2006 where his contract just isn't worth it. At best he matches Derek Lowe but he's much less consistent.

The only positives I can take from this is that he could have some really dominating years where he just puts everything together. He also has succeeded in the AL East. 5 years just isn't worth it though and Derek Lowe would have been a much safer bet to deliver season at a similar quality to what we`re hoping for from Burnett.

5 years at about 16 million a year is not worth it for Burnett. Either Lowe or Sheets would have been better picks.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Burnett for 80 mil?

Jon Heyman thinks that the new Yankees offer is 5 years, 80 million. That's 16 million a year for a non ace who will almost never pitch a full season. This is pure idiocy, you think he`ll be able to stay healthy when he`s 36?

Uh Oh....

It looks like the Yankees may have lost their minds and offered A. J. Burnett a 5th year. Cross your fingers that the Braves go up and save the Yankees from themselves. I`m extremely unhappy if this is true and they better have a contingency plan for when he gets hurt.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Burnett- Braves Talks

Peter Gammons, who is usually reliable when not writing/talking about the Red Sox, says that talks between the Braves and A.J. Burnett are going well. Cross your fingers....

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Burnett

Theirs been a ton of articles in the past two days stating that the Braves are preparing to make an offer of 5 years to Burnett for about 15-16 million per year. The Blue Jays and Yankees are supposedly willing to make offers with a vesting option for a 5th year.

I don't see anybody else going to 5 years, other than maybe the Blue Jays. If he goes to the Braves that would be best case scenario for the Yanks. They no longer have to face him and they don't have to sign him to a bad contract. Plus it`ll be fun to watch him terrorize the Mets.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Yankees News and Notes

Alright this is my first post from my iPhone so cut me some slack.

Moose has decided to go out on top and retire after his first career 20 win season. Mussina was the only pitcher who really pulled threw last year; even though he is a cranky old guy we will still miss him.

In other news Bobby Abreu was reportedly offered arbritration by the Yankees. This is a smart move, Abreu will say no and we will get the draft picks.

The Yankees are really in the market for pitching right now but a lot of sports writers think Lowe and Burnett will go elsewhere. To me that thought is crazy. The Yankees rotation right now is Wang, Joba, Hughes, IPK and Aceves. Sounds a little inexperenced doesn't it? The Yankees are going to do everything they can to get one or both if these guys. So their youngsters can develop and so that they don't have to trade. Even if that means giving Burnett 5 years, which he has clearly made his starting point.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Another Yankees v Red Sox Bidding War

Kat O'Brien  has the latest news on A.J. Burnett. The Jays already offered 4 years $54 mill to Burnett. Now the Red Sox and Yankees are going to bid against each other for this injury bound lefty. The Yankees are expected to make an opening bid of at most 4 years 80 million.

Now this just seems silly to me. This guy, Burnett, averages less than 150 innings per season over the last 9 years. Shesh, it seems to me if we sign him, The Yankees would be paying a buttload of money for a guy to sit on the DL. He does have ace material but the injuries just bring him down. He is already 32 extending any pitcher this age for 4 more years is nuts. I'm with NoMaas on this one:

The Votes Are In...

OK, so we set up our first (of many!) Chuck Knoblog poll. It has been a while so I thought I would post the results and announce the next poll. Here are the results:

The Question: WHICH FREE AGENTS SHOULD THE YANKEES SIGN?

  • CC: 84 Votes (78%)
  • Sheets: 16 Votes (14%)
  • Dunn: 12 Votes (11%)
  • Texieria: 60 Votes (56%)
  • Lowe: 22 Votes (20%)
  • Burnett: 38 Votes (35%)
Total Votes: 107

That was a great poll everyone thanks for participating! Now the next poll is up and the question is:

Do you support the signing of Nick Swisher?

Alright the poll is live on the right side of the page. Happy Voting! New Poll is right here>>>

Be sure to vote!

Friday, November 14, 2008

Yankees To Offer Deals to Big Name Pitchers

The Yankees are offering deals to CC, Burnett and Lowe. The 3 offers together will total around 250 million together. The offer to CC will exceed Johan's deal of 137 million. I think that it is very aggressive to go after all three of them. I personally do not like Burnett and think he will just end up getting injured. If all three are signed (not likely) imagine the rotation...

Friday, October 3, 2008

Plan B?

The Yankees will almost definitely have to sign a free agent starting pitcher. Obviously, C.C. Sabathia is the best guy available. However, it looks increasingly likely he will not not come to the Yankees. The three other guys who are the most likely options are Ben Sheets, A.J. Burnett, and Derek Lowe.

Ben Sheets has been an ace when healthy. He flat out dominates and could be the true #1 the Yankees would love to get. However, their's two problems with him. First, he`d be coming over from the NL. Second, he`s a HUGE injury risk. This screams of the Carl Pavano signing. Its extremely tempting to go after him. However, ideally I would say no.

A.J. Burnett is probably the most popular of these guys among Yankees fans. He`s pitched in the AL East for the past few years and he`s killed the Yankees and Red Sox. Again though, their`s problems. He`s only slightly less of an injury risk then Sheets and he`s really not been as good. He`s been hyped as an ace which he just isn't. I`m totally against signing Burnett. I think it would be a major mistake.

Derek Lowe is the least hyped of these guys. Nobody would mistake him for an ace but he`s a reliable #3 or #2. He`s had no major injury problems. He`s a ground ball pitcher but he also maintains a very good K/BB. He`s also been through the AL East before. Looking back at his last year in Boston it seems like a disaster. However, his periphereals indicate it was more a lack of luck then a lack of skill.

Their`s pretty much no guarantees for the Yankees rotation next year. Wang should be fine but is coming off of an injury, Pettitte and Mussina may not be back and if they are then they will still be one year older, Hughes/Aceves/Kennedy are certainly no sure things, and I would hesitate to call Joba a sure thing as well. Do you want to gamble on a Ben Sheets or A.J. Burnett as well? I think they need to take the safe bet in Lowe and hope Hughes and Joba can emerge as front end of the rotation starters.