Showing posts with label kevin millwood. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kevin millwood. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Buy Low on Millwood

Theirs been plenty of rumors going around about Rangers starters Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla. Both have posted high ERA's the past two years though and have drawn little interest. Padilla just isn't very good but I think Millwood might be a good opportunity for the Yankees to buy low on a solid, back of the rotation innings eater rather than hand out a huge deal to Burnett, or even Lowe if his price gets to high.

At first glance, Millwood looks like a guy who hit an early and steep decline. It looks worse when you realize that the Rangers owe him 11 million for 2009 and if he hits 180 innings then his 12 million dollar option for 2010 would become guarenteed. In a trade the Rangers would probably pick up a portion of this.

However, a closer look at his periphereals reveals a pretty solid pitcher. Over the past three years his BABIP has increased every year. In 2006 it was a slightly unlucky .313. After that it got much more extreme. In 2007 it was .348 and, finally, last year it become incredible .366. His FIP's over this time were 3.87, 4.55, and 4.02. His IP totals were 215, 172.2, and 168.2 which isn't fantastic but certainly better than Burnett, Penny, or Sheets who may be the backup plans for free agency if they fail to sign Lowe or Sabathia. If the Yankees are looking for an innings eater at the back of the rotation by the end of the offseason, they should definitely take a look at Kevin Millwood for 2 years.