Showing posts with label lowe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lowe. Show all posts

Sunday, January 4, 2009

Slow Times...

Things are slow right now in the world of baseball. Which means we fans entertain ourselves with absurd ideas like Orlando Hudson in centerfield and (the slightly more sane) Joba in the bullpen. The Mets commentary is extremely sane and reasonable, however, this article in the New York Post by Kevin Kernan has some thoughts on the Yank that are just to ridiculous to ignore. Its chock full of nonsense and generalizations which have nothing to do with reality so we`ll do this Fire Joe Morgan style, the article is in italics and my obnoxious comments are in normal font.

THERE remains one final major move for the Yankees to make. Same goes for the Mets .

Bringing Andy Pettitte back on a cheap short term deal? Signing Derek Lowe to give us a cartoonish rotation? Trading Nady for a top knotch pitcher like Aaron Harang or Jonathan Sanchez? Selling the farm for Jake Peavy? Please, oh Kevin Kernan, tell us in your infinite wisdom, what is this final piece to the puzzle that the Yankees need?

The Yankees still have a hole in their rotation. This has been an incredibly prosperous offseason for the Yankees and GM Brian Cashman with the free-agent additions of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira. Making one final move toward youth on the free-agent market will set them up for years to come.

Ben Sheets????

The Yankees are waiting on Andy Pettitte , but there is another lefty available at basically Pettitte dollars and that's

JONATHAN SANCHEZ

Oliver Perez.

*silence*

Signing Perez would cement the Yankees' rotation for years to come and would give them flexibility with Joba Chamberlain.

Wait, we`re talking the same Oliver Perez right? The one I`m thinking of has had exactly two years of K/BB's over 2.00. Only one took place in the past three years. The one I`m thinking of has no strong tendency for GB's to compensate either, in fact, he seems to display the opposite, consistently displaying one of the lowest GB%'s in the league. The one I`m thinking of is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball which is the last thing a competitive team with a good offense (like the Yankees) needs. The Oliver Perez I know has only his youth and ability to throw hard going for him, all in all is a pretty mediocore pitcher who has a history of injuries.

Are you seriously suggesting that this guy can be a rock for years to come who is good enough to merit giving up on Joba Chamberlain, one of the best young pitchers in the game (knock on wood)?

"Putting Perez on the Yankees would be a great move," says one top pitching evaluator. "That would be the perfect environment for him. He would be more focused there. He needs strong leadership around him, and pitching in front of a packed house, he would not be complacent."

Wouldn't it be cool if Perez had spent the past few years in a pressure packed environment that exposed him to something like the New York media so we knew how he would handle New York....

Perez is 5-1 against the Yankees lifetime. He takes those games as a challenge and he attacks.

How long will it take these guys to understand the concept of a small sample size?

Because he already has six full seasons under his belt and has had his share of ups and downs, people forget Perez is just 27. Opposing hitters batted only .234 last season against him.

His BABIP was a little low but that's a fair point. The only problem he has are.....

Walks, of course, have been his downfall. There is no excuse for his ridiculous 105 walks, the most in the majors. In eight of his 34 starts last season, Perez surrendered five or more walks.

And there you have it. The problem with Oliver Perez is he has no control. Sure, a good pitching coach and some more years could fix that but the Yanks can do better. Their are better options out there. Especially since they`re not looking for a long-term solution, they just need a short 1 or 2 year fix who can pitch about 200 solid innings and hold down a spot for Hughes, Kennedy, Aceves, and anybody else who might break out this year. Andy Pettitte fills that description better than anyone else in baseball. Forget about nostalgia, signing Pettitte makes sense.

That has to change. The previous season, he walked 79.

Right, and if Carl Pavano could just stay healthy.....

Perez is represented by Scott Boras, who also represents Mark Teixeira. Cashman has a good working relationship with Boras.

Yanks have money, Boras likes money.

You`re telling me that having Boras as an agent is a good thing????!!!!!

The GM would have to take a leap of faith with Perez,

Exactly why we don't want him.....

but the upside could be tremendous.

And it has tremendous potential to blow up in our face and be a disaster.

In Pettitte, the Yankees will get a pitcher they hope has one good season left in his cranky left shoulder.

Andy Pettitte's cranky shoulder limited him to over 200 innings the past 4 years. The last time he missed significant time was 2004. Oliver Perez has not had a 200 inning season in his whole 6 year career (although he got close in 2004 and last year).

Opponents batted .290 last season against Pettitte, 56 points higher than they did against Perez, who allowed 66 fewer hits.

Pettitte's BABIP was also 59 points higher. This was despite Pettitte's LD% being 2 points lower. Meaning Perez's BABIP should have been 20 points higher.

Perez also had a lower ERA (4.22 to 4.54)

Every time a professional writer uses ERA, wins, or RBI's in an article a little part of me dies inside.

and more strikeouts (180 to 158).

A fair point, compounded by Pettitte pitching more innings but not enough to overcome the gap in GB% or BB's.

Perez is 10 years younger, too, which fits Cashman's plan of making the Yankees younger

That's right, a team of hungry little leaguers beats a team of All Stars any day.

Its good to get younger but not at the cost of improving the eam.

By signing so many quality free agents this season, it gives the Yankees a window to develop their own talent, and that is still the basis of what Cashman is trying to do. The bottom line, however, is the David Prices of the world can only be drafted when you have the top pick, something the Yankees never have. Teixeira was the fifth pick of the 2001 draft; the Yankees selected 23rd that season. And Sabathia was the 20th pick of the 1998 draft; the Yankees selected 24th that year.

This is a paragraph of pure nonsensical nonsense that I cannot even begin to translate into some semblance of english or any other language.

I happen to agree with every single thing written in the rest of the article which adresses Derek Lowe and the Mets. I have nothing against Kevin Kernan and haven't read anything else the man has ever written. But its early January and things are slow so.....

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Lowe Rumors Exaggerated

After intially being really excited to hear that the Yanks may be closing on Derek Lowe, we`ve had a few sources saying that these are not true at all. Although they are going after Lowe and have made an offer.

Derek Lowe Close?

Cashman isn't waiting to get started on the next big move. The Yanks are in serious negotiations for a four year deal with Derek Lowe. As I`ve stated many times before, I think Lowe should be the second big FA that the Yankees sign.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

What Is Derek Lowe Worth?

I`ve said before that I think Derek Lowe is the 2nd best pitcher available. He`s looking for a 5 year deal though (not happening though) for about 18 million dollars a year (possible but he`ll probably get less). Just as an estimate, eyeballing his stats I would say he`s worth 3-4 years at about 14-15 million dollars a year. I`ve been meaning to do a more careful analysis though.

Their is a perception of Lowe as being a middle of the rotation starter who can eat a lot of innings. Most see him as Wang lite. However, in truth he`s been better than Wang over the past three years. Unlike Wang, he can strike guys out to go with that great GB ability. In my opinion, he is every bit the ace that Sheets or Burnett can be when healthy.

Here`s Lowe's RCA's and the runs and innings he should have had based on his K, BB, and batted ball numbers:

2006- 3.50 (81 runs in 209 innings)

2007- 3.26 (69 runs in 190 innings)

2008- 3.34 (74 runs in 199 innings)

These numbers show that Lowe's reputation as an innings eater is well earned. However, during those innings he has pitched like an ace. As compared to the replacement level pitcher:

2006- 5.50 (128 runs in 209 innings)

2007- 5.50 (116 runs in 190 innings)

2008- 5.50 (122 runs in 199 innings)

All of this adds up to make Lowe's monetary value:

2006- 47 runs, 4.7 wins, 25.85 million dollars

2007- 47 runs, 4.7 wins, 25.85 million dollars

2008- 48 runs, 4.8 wins, 26.4 million dollars

All in all those are 3 very similar and very valuable seasons. They`re not quite on the same level as Sabathia but they are very good. The only problem with Lowe is that you can really only expect one, maybe two, more years like that out of him because of his age. After that he should start dropping off. He`s looking for a 5 year deal and teams are looking to give him a 3 year deal. I`d guess that he`ll end up with a 4 year deal with an option for a 5th.

So, figure on one more season like 2006-2008 (worth about 26 million), then a year where he`s declining but still near that level (worth about 20-22 million), and then 2 years where he`s an innings eater but not much more than that, sort of like Pettitte now (worth 16-18 million and 12 million each). That adds up to an estimated total of 70-74 million dollars over 4 years for an average of 17.5-18.5 million dollars per year. This looks to be about what he`ll end up getting, maybe a little less. Considering that salaries are always going up as well, its probably a pretty good deal unless he gets injured, which he has no history of.

Right now I like the idea of a rotation of Sabathia-Lowe-Wang- Pettitte- Joba. With Hughes, Aceves, Kennedy, and Sergio Mitre waiting to fill in for injury. That has the potential for a rotation with four aces and could go head-to-head with anybody else in baseball.

Derek Lowe

Turns out their are a few Derek Lowe rumors going around after all.

Jon Heyman says that the Yanks and Boras are discussing a 4 year deal for about 65 million dollars. Lowe wants 5 years for 80 million. Somewhere in the middle here would be pretty fair and I`d be fine with it.

The Phillies and Yanks are the biggest competitors for him. Seeing as the Phillies hate giving away money, I like this. In fact, they`re denying that their is even a 3 year deal on the table. I doubt that measn they`re offering 4 years.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Yankees News and Notes

Alright this is my first post from my iPhone so cut me some slack.

Moose has decided to go out on top and retire after his first career 20 win season. Mussina was the only pitcher who really pulled threw last year; even though he is a cranky old guy we will still miss him.

In other news Bobby Abreu was reportedly offered arbritration by the Yankees. This is a smart move, Abreu will say no and we will get the draft picks.

The Yankees are really in the market for pitching right now but a lot of sports writers think Lowe and Burnett will go elsewhere. To me that thought is crazy. The Yankees rotation right now is Wang, Joba, Hughes, IPK and Aceves. Sounds a little inexperenced doesn't it? The Yankees are going to do everything they can to get one or both if these guys. So their youngsters can develop and so that they don't have to trade. Even if that means giving Burnett 5 years, which he has clearly made his starting point.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

The Votes Are In...

OK, so we set up our first (of many!) Chuck Knoblog poll. It has been a while so I thought I would post the results and announce the next poll. Here are the results:

The Question: WHICH FREE AGENTS SHOULD THE YANKEES SIGN?

  • CC: 84 Votes (78%)
  • Sheets: 16 Votes (14%)
  • Dunn: 12 Votes (11%)
  • Texieria: 60 Votes (56%)
  • Lowe: 22 Votes (20%)
  • Burnett: 38 Votes (35%)
Total Votes: 107

That was a great poll everyone thanks for participating! Now the next poll is up and the question is:

Do you support the signing of Nick Swisher?

Alright the poll is live on the right side of the page. Happy Voting! New Poll is right here>>>

Be sure to vote!

Friday, November 14, 2008

Yankees To Offer Deals to Big Name Pitchers

The Yankees are offering deals to CC, Burnett and Lowe. The 3 offers together will total around 250 million together. The offer to CC will exceed Johan's deal of 137 million. I think that it is very aggressive to go after all three of them. I personally do not like Burnett and think he will just end up getting injured. If all three are signed (not likely) imagine the rotation...

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Derek Lowe

Apparently theirs some other people out their who agree with me in that lowe should be Plan B if Sabathia is unavailable.

Friday, October 3, 2008

Plan B?

The Yankees will almost definitely have to sign a free agent starting pitcher. Obviously, C.C. Sabathia is the best guy available. However, it looks increasingly likely he will not not come to the Yankees. The three other guys who are the most likely options are Ben Sheets, A.J. Burnett, and Derek Lowe.

Ben Sheets has been an ace when healthy. He flat out dominates and could be the true #1 the Yankees would love to get. However, their's two problems with him. First, he`d be coming over from the NL. Second, he`s a HUGE injury risk. This screams of the Carl Pavano signing. Its extremely tempting to go after him. However, ideally I would say no.

A.J. Burnett is probably the most popular of these guys among Yankees fans. He`s pitched in the AL East for the past few years and he`s killed the Yankees and Red Sox. Again though, their`s problems. He`s only slightly less of an injury risk then Sheets and he`s really not been as good. He`s been hyped as an ace which he just isn't. I`m totally against signing Burnett. I think it would be a major mistake.

Derek Lowe is the least hyped of these guys. Nobody would mistake him for an ace but he`s a reliable #3 or #2. He`s had no major injury problems. He`s a ground ball pitcher but he also maintains a very good K/BB. He`s also been through the AL East before. Looking back at his last year in Boston it seems like a disaster. However, his periphereals indicate it was more a lack of luck then a lack of skill.

Their`s pretty much no guarantees for the Yankees rotation next year. Wang should be fine but is coming off of an injury, Pettitte and Mussina may not be back and if they are then they will still be one year older, Hughes/Aceves/Kennedy are certainly no sure things, and I would hesitate to call Joba a sure thing as well. Do you want to gamble on a Ben Sheets or A.J. Burnett as well? I think they need to take the safe bet in Lowe and hope Hughes and Joba can emerge as front end of the rotation starters.