Showing posts with label oliver perez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oliver perez. Show all posts

Sunday, January 4, 2009

What Is Oliver Perez Worth?

After yesterday's post on Oliver Perez one of the commenters suggested I make one of these things for Perez. So, here it is.



Like I said yesterday, Perez is an okay pitcher. Probably a little below average but he`s still young and has room to improve. The two problems he has are walks and frustrating inconsistency. Neither of which are good for a team which will be on the brink of playoff contention like the Yanks who need to be sure they`re getting a solid 6 innings every time out from their 5th starter. That's my impression at least. Does he strike out enough to make it worth it? In a word, no. Here`s his RCA numbers for the last three years:



2006-5.61 (71 runs in 114 innings)



2007- 3.58 (72 runs in 181 innings)



2008- 5.08 (105 runs in 186 innings)



In comparison a replacement level pitcher:



2006- 5.50 (67 runs in 114 innings)



2007- 5.50 (111 runs in 181 innings)



2008- 5.50 (114 runs in 186 innings)



Like I said, really inconsistent. In 2006 and 2008 he was awful and in 2007 he was an ace. He`s only 27 and could figure things out but not with the Yankees. The transition to the AL East would be awful for him. Besides this it locks up their 5 spots in the rotation long term which leaves Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves in a permanent state of filling in for injury unless you move Joba to the bullpen which weakens the team long-term. Perez is a risky signing and could turn out being a stroke of genius for a team with a good pitching coach but not with the Yankees.



For any other team here is his worth compared to a replacment level pitcher:



2006- 4 runs, .4 wins, 2.2 million dollars



2007- 39 runs, 3.9 wins, 21.45 million dollars



2008- 9 runs, .9 wins, 4.95 million dollars



Perez will probably get a three year deal from some NL team, who that is I`m not sure. Convenienty, we can add up what he deserved the past 3 years to get a ballpark figure of what he`s worth, which is 28.6 million dollars. That's a little under 10 million dollars a year, about what he should get. He`ll be 27 on Opening Day and he could be beginning his peak years so theirs a good chance he`ll outperform that. Again though, the Yankees aren't looking for a risky long-term project just a one year quick fix to give Hughes some extra time.

Slow Times...

Things are slow right now in the world of baseball. Which means we fans entertain ourselves with absurd ideas like Orlando Hudson in centerfield and (the slightly more sane) Joba in the bullpen. The Mets commentary is extremely sane and reasonable, however, this article in the New York Post by Kevin Kernan has some thoughts on the Yank that are just to ridiculous to ignore. Its chock full of nonsense and generalizations which have nothing to do with reality so we`ll do this Fire Joe Morgan style, the article is in italics and my obnoxious comments are in normal font.

THERE remains one final major move for the Yankees to make. Same goes for the Mets .

Bringing Andy Pettitte back on a cheap short term deal? Signing Derek Lowe to give us a cartoonish rotation? Trading Nady for a top knotch pitcher like Aaron Harang or Jonathan Sanchez? Selling the farm for Jake Peavy? Please, oh Kevin Kernan, tell us in your infinite wisdom, what is this final piece to the puzzle that the Yankees need?

The Yankees still have a hole in their rotation. This has been an incredibly prosperous offseason for the Yankees and GM Brian Cashman with the free-agent additions of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira. Making one final move toward youth on the free-agent market will set them up for years to come.

Ben Sheets????

The Yankees are waiting on Andy Pettitte , but there is another lefty available at basically Pettitte dollars and that's

JONATHAN SANCHEZ

Oliver Perez.

*silence*

Signing Perez would cement the Yankees' rotation for years to come and would give them flexibility with Joba Chamberlain.

Wait, we`re talking the same Oliver Perez right? The one I`m thinking of has had exactly two years of K/BB's over 2.00. Only one took place in the past three years. The one I`m thinking of has no strong tendency for GB's to compensate either, in fact, he seems to display the opposite, consistently displaying one of the lowest GB%'s in the league. The one I`m thinking of is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball which is the last thing a competitive team with a good offense (like the Yankees) needs. The Oliver Perez I know has only his youth and ability to throw hard going for him, all in all is a pretty mediocore pitcher who has a history of injuries.

Are you seriously suggesting that this guy can be a rock for years to come who is good enough to merit giving up on Joba Chamberlain, one of the best young pitchers in the game (knock on wood)?

"Putting Perez on the Yankees would be a great move," says one top pitching evaluator. "That would be the perfect environment for him. He would be more focused there. He needs strong leadership around him, and pitching in front of a packed house, he would not be complacent."

Wouldn't it be cool if Perez had spent the past few years in a pressure packed environment that exposed him to something like the New York media so we knew how he would handle New York....

Perez is 5-1 against the Yankees lifetime. He takes those games as a challenge and he attacks.

How long will it take these guys to understand the concept of a small sample size?

Because he already has six full seasons under his belt and has had his share of ups and downs, people forget Perez is just 27. Opposing hitters batted only .234 last season against him.

His BABIP was a little low but that's a fair point. The only problem he has are.....

Walks, of course, have been his downfall. There is no excuse for his ridiculous 105 walks, the most in the majors. In eight of his 34 starts last season, Perez surrendered five or more walks.

And there you have it. The problem with Oliver Perez is he has no control. Sure, a good pitching coach and some more years could fix that but the Yanks can do better. Their are better options out there. Especially since they`re not looking for a long-term solution, they just need a short 1 or 2 year fix who can pitch about 200 solid innings and hold down a spot for Hughes, Kennedy, Aceves, and anybody else who might break out this year. Andy Pettitte fills that description better than anyone else in baseball. Forget about nostalgia, signing Pettitte makes sense.

That has to change. The previous season, he walked 79.

Right, and if Carl Pavano could just stay healthy.....

Perez is represented by Scott Boras, who also represents Mark Teixeira. Cashman has a good working relationship with Boras.

Yanks have money, Boras likes money.

You`re telling me that having Boras as an agent is a good thing????!!!!!

The GM would have to take a leap of faith with Perez,

Exactly why we don't want him.....

but the upside could be tremendous.

And it has tremendous potential to blow up in our face and be a disaster.

In Pettitte, the Yankees will get a pitcher they hope has one good season left in his cranky left shoulder.

Andy Pettitte's cranky shoulder limited him to over 200 innings the past 4 years. The last time he missed significant time was 2004. Oliver Perez has not had a 200 inning season in his whole 6 year career (although he got close in 2004 and last year).

Opponents batted .290 last season against Pettitte, 56 points higher than they did against Perez, who allowed 66 fewer hits.

Pettitte's BABIP was also 59 points higher. This was despite Pettitte's LD% being 2 points lower. Meaning Perez's BABIP should have been 20 points higher.

Perez also had a lower ERA (4.22 to 4.54)

Every time a professional writer uses ERA, wins, or RBI's in an article a little part of me dies inside.

and more strikeouts (180 to 158).

A fair point, compounded by Pettitte pitching more innings but not enough to overcome the gap in GB% or BB's.

Perez is 10 years younger, too, which fits Cashman's plan of making the Yankees younger

That's right, a team of hungry little leaguers beats a team of All Stars any day.

Its good to get younger but not at the cost of improving the eam.

By signing so many quality free agents this season, it gives the Yankees a window to develop their own talent, and that is still the basis of what Cashman is trying to do. The bottom line, however, is the David Prices of the world can only be drafted when you have the top pick, something the Yankees never have. Teixeira was the fifth pick of the 2001 draft; the Yankees selected 23rd that season. And Sabathia was the 20th pick of the 1998 draft; the Yankees selected 24th that year.

This is a paragraph of pure nonsensical nonsense that I cannot even begin to translate into some semblance of english or any other language.

I happen to agree with every single thing written in the rest of the article which adresses Derek Lowe and the Mets. I have nothing against Kevin Kernan and haven't read anything else the man has ever written. But its early January and things are slow so.....