Showing posts with label random speculation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label random speculation. Show all posts

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Elijah Dukes

There's been a lot of rumors surrounding Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher recently, and one of them will likely be traded before Spring Training, though I don't really think that's necessary. However, if we were to trade say, Xavier Nady, I think it would be a good idea to trade for a center fielder. The Nationals have a known interest in Nady, and they also have a troubled outfielder named Elijah Dukes. Dukes has had a lot of problems off the field in his career, and they were all pretty serious. However, his upside is enormous. He won't hit for a great average, but it won't be Adam Dunn bad, and he also walks a lot (15.3% walk rate), with good pop (.209 career IsoP). He is a plus defender at the corners, but I'm not sure how well he can play center, but he shouldn't be unbearably bad, and if he lives up to his offensive potential it will be well worth it. Just what is that offensive potential? In roughly half a season last year, he put up an .864 OPS and a .382 wOBA at just 24 years old. At age 30, Xavier Nady put up similar numbers: an .867 OPS and a .374 wOBA.

This move also solves a future problem. Dukes is under team control for another five years, while Nady will leave after next year. In 2010, Dukes can shift over to right, with Swisher in left (I'm not sure but I think Dukes has a better arm) and AJax in center. So instead of competing with probably five or six other teams for a thirty year-old Matt Holliday or re-signing an aging Johnny Damon, we can just use our young stud outfielder in right.

However, there are plenty of caveats to this move. First of all, would the Nats do it? Dukes's trade value is slightly deflated because of his legal troubles, but I don't know how low it is in the eyes of Jim Bowden. To be honest, I really don't know if we could get Dukes + for Nady, or if Bowden would even take a straight-up swap seriously. Second, there's Dukes' aformentioned legal troubles. I ussually don't care at all if a guy has been arrested or has had other problems, as long he plays well, I like him. But Dukes might be a different story. He has been arrested four times, has five children with four women, and threatened to kill his wife and child. Last year, the Nationals hired an ex- police officer to follow him around and keep him out of trouble, and he had no problems last year. So it is possible he has turned a corner. I mean, Josh Hamilton has done it, why can't he? So what we have to do is weigh the potential for an offensive monster who plays good D (once we move him to a corner) against the possibility that he goes back to his old ways and ends up struggling to stay on the field. What do I say? I say if a Nady-Dukes swap is availible straight up, do it. If we have to give up Swisher instead, I would want some more from the Nats. What do the rest of you think.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

There's An Idea....

I was reading through the last chat on MLB Trade Rumors and one of the questioners actually had a pretty good idea. Why not have the Yankees solve their two biggest problems on offense and trade for David DeJesus and Billy Butler in the same trade?

I`ve advocated trading for DeJesus in the past. He`s not fantastic and ideally he`s not a centerfielder but he can hold the position down for a year before hopefully moving to left or right field when Jackson is ready. He`s cheap and a solid hitter. The Royals are willing to trade him as well.

The Royals have a surplus of first baseman, especially with their trade for Mike Jacobs. Butler is very young and cheap but was dissapointing for the Royals last year. He`s only going to get better and could be the long term answer that they`ve been searching for.

For DeJesus I advocated a package of Kennedy+ Aceves+Wright+Melky. They would need more in order to get Butler as well. Maybe by replacing Kennedy or Aceves with McAllister and replacing Melky with Gardner would get it done. McAllister+Aceves or Kennedy+Gardner+Wright? Is that fair?

I still might not be totally comfortable with Butler at first for 2009. Maybe it would be better to have him spend a year in AAA to wait for injury or hopefully 2010. I would still go after Dunn or Texiera if the price is right. However, they wouldn't be desperate enough to make a ridiculous offer. In 2010 Jackson and Butler could slip into the lineup, Jackson could move DeJesus to left or right to replace Nady or Damon and Butler could be the DH to replace Matsui.

This is just more random speculation but its an idea.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Derrek Lee

Derrek Lee may be available this offseason. The Cubs may be looking to shed the 26 million they owe him over the next 2 years. Could he be a good plan B if Dunn or Texiera aren't signed? He`s a solid hitter (about a .285 EQA last year) and, by all accounts, an excellent fielder. He wouldn't cost much in terms of prospects either.